AGP Executive Report

Asia Equities Jolt: South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 12.78% after a US chip selloff, dragging SK Hynix and Samsung; Japan’s Nikkei slipped and Kioxia fell sharply as “profit-taking” hit AI and tech winners. FX Watch: Seoul’s vice finance chief warned the won is misaligned and said authorities are ready to act if dollar-won liquidity issues spark excessive swings ahead of 24-hour trading. Trade Tensions: The EU and China move toward a ministerial dialogue on trade imbalances and export controls, as Brussels frames the relationship as structurally unsustainable. USMCA Update: The Trump administration declined to renew USMCA “in its current form,” starting a new negotiation clock with Mexico on autos rules of origin and economic security. Money Markets Reform (India): RBI’s plan to let NBFCs access the term money market could lift volumes 40–60% in a year and deepen liquidity, with top-rated NBFCs seeing modest spread compression. Digital Finance (Africa): Grey launched local-currency deposits in Ghana and Kenya to fund accounts via bank transfer and mobile money, aiming to reduce friction between local rails and global services. Corporate/Markets Ops: Australia’s ASIC cancelled Capital Guard’s AFS licence over a fake $100,000 “Macquarie” bond scheme.

USMCA Deadline: The U.S. says it will not renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade pact “in its current form,” keeping talks going as the agreement triggers a review that could run for years. AfCFTA Trade Talks: Nigeria hosted the AfCFTA Trade Ministers Council; the Sahrawi Republic pushed to deepen participation in the bloc’s institutions and legal instruments. Digital Treasuries: Tradeweb and Canton completed a real-time tokenized U.S. Treasuries trade using USDCx, signaling more practical onchain settlement for institutional rates. Small Business Banking: ProSight’s survey of 600 U.S. owners finds growth remains top priority, with demand rising for stability plus flexibility from banks. Monetary Policy Pressure: Nepal’s central bank is urged to prioritize financial stability, credit quality and non-banking asset management to restore private-sector confidence. Market Structure Rules: Bangladesh’s regulator lets Dhaka and Chittagong set their own market-control parameters, including circuit breakers. Energy Certainty Finance: Brookfield expanded a $25B financing partnership with Bloom Energy to tackle grid delays for AI and hyperscalers. SME Funding Ecosystem: Zimbabwe’s ZSE and TN Asset Management plan a ZEEX platform to co-finance and prepare SMEs for listing. Corporate/Insider Watch: Jollibee saw a director sell shares while controlling shareholders and executives bought more. Tokenized Finance in Europe: Standard Chartered received MiCA/EMI approval and executed first live digital-asset prime brokerage trades with LMAX.

Crypto policy & regulation: Europe’s MiCA transition ends July 1, leaving fewer than one in five previously registered crypto firms fully authorized; ESMA says unauthorized providers must wind down “orderly” and stop activity in the single market. US political finance: Trump’s latest financial disclosure shows about $1.2B in 2025 earnings tied to crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial and Trump-branded token sales. Institutional crypto plumbing: Binance and Anchorage Digital expand institutional off-exchange settlement and segregated custody via Anchorage’s Atlas platform, aiming to separate custody/collateral from execution. Market structure & trading tech: Nasdaq’s move to bring proprietary market data onchain via Pyth highlights the shift toward blockchain-backed market infrastructure. Banking & credit: RBI says microfinance lending is recovering after seven quarters of decline, though borrower numbers keep shrinking; asset quality has improved. Rates & FX: India’s rupee slips 19 paise to 94.75 per dollar; South Korea bond yields jump as the won weakens. Equities: India’s Sensex and Nifty open higher on autos and FMCG; Australia’s ASX starts the new financial year slightly lower as banks drag while South32 jumps on its Alcoa aluminium deal. Competition watchdog: South Korea’s trade regulator alleges Google abused its Android app store position, with sanctions proceedings underway.

ASEAN Banking Restructure: Maybank Indonesia’s shareholders approved turning the unit into the operational holding company for the Maybank Financial Conglomerate, alongside majority-stake acquisitions in Maybank Asset Management, Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia and Etiqa—aimed at a more integrated banking, wealth and insurance setup. Energy & Shipping: Shell says global LNG trade may stay flat in 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions remove about a fifth of monthly supply, though North America liquefaction ramp-ups and slower Asian imports help offset. Car Finance Legal Fight: UK car finance lenders challenged the FCA’s proposed £9.1bn motor finance redress scheme, arguing it breaches human rights and is legally flawed; separate news also notes Merrill Lynch’s $7.5mn SEC settlement. Market Risk Watch: India’s RBI flagged resilience in banks and non-banks, with gross NPAs at a multi-decadal low of 1.8% (end-March 2026), while warning exchange-rate volatility could rise if oil prices jump. Tech Valuation Pressure: Investors trimmed Magnificent Seven value by about $2.3tn in June as AI capex return timelines face scrutiny. Compliance in Focus: UEFA fined Newcastle €6m for breaching financial sustainability rules, adding a €3m payment plus €7m suspended for future compliance.

RBI Rules Tighten for Brokers: India’s central bank moves to fully collateralize banks’ credit to stock and commodity brokers from July 1, with a 40% haircut on equity collateral—aimed at protecting depositors and reshaping derivatives lending economics. US-India Trade Momentum: USISPF says negotiations for an India-U.S. bilateral trade deal are nearing the finish line, with talks focused on market access, digital trade, supply chains, and cutting non-tariff barriers. Markets Lift on Iran Talks: Asian shares mostly rose as the US and Iran plan talks in Qatar, easing Strait of Hormuz disruption fears; South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded while oil stabilized. Crypto Sentiment Watch: ARK Invest bought $43.5M of crypto-linked stocks amid a Bitcoin slide, while US regulators expand scrutiny of Polymarket. Corporate Bond Demand Cools (Korea): South Korea’s corporate bond sales fell 15.4% in May as industrial and financial financing demand weakened. Banking & Inclusion (PNG): Wau Waria gets a new Mama Bank access point and a three-year partnership to expand formal banking access and financial education. Trade Friction (EU-China): EU and China push dialogue to manage trade tensions, with an October deadline set for tangible progress.

Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Ethiopia reached a preliminary deal with bondholders to restructure its $1bn defaulted international bond, issuing an $880m new note repaid in installments through 2029 at 6.15% and covering $99.4m in missed coupons plus fees, with an IMF-endorsed “New Money Warrant” tied to future issuance. Central Banking & Liquidity: Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is leaning more on government securities operations—repos, term repos and open-market tools—to keep overnight funding stable as rate cuts and slower growth reshape fixed-income conditions. Regulation & Markets: The U.S. Supreme Court expanded presidential power over FTC commissioners, while the CFTC widened its probe into Polymarket over staged trades and fake winning bets. Crypto Policy: Thailand is moving toward a 1:1 baht-backed stablecoin framework for licensed institutions, with public consultation expected before end-2026. Banking Stability: Nigeria’s NDIC reiterated its deposit-protection and bank-supervision mandate under the Renewed Hope Agenda. Corporate Finance: Honda is exploring euro bond sales worth over 400bn yen to fund parts-maker payments after revising its EV strategy. Index/ETF Flows: Alphabet officially joined the Dow; Velo3D jumped after Russell 3000/Microcap inclusion; Roundhill’s 2x DRAM ETF RAM debuted with record first-day volume. Precious Metals: Heraeus said gold could benefit from falling oil and easing inflation expectations, even as a stronger dollar keeps prices under pressure.

Banking & Debt Markets: RAKBANK has mandated a group of global banks to arrange investor meetings ahead of a 5-year USD Regulation S senior unsecured bond, with issuance expected subject to market conditions. Public Markets (Romania): Romania’s Financial Oversight Authority flagged a Q1 activity surge, with the BET index up 58.68% by end-March, alongside stronger trading and capitalization. Fixed Income (Romania): FIDELIS government bonds from the June subscription period (over RON 936m) have started trading on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Pensions (Romania): Voluntary pension funds (Pillar III) rose to 7.86bn lei at end-March, with participation up 20% to 1.05m and NN Asigurari holding 56.1% of assets. Equities & Corporate Actions (India): Kotak Mahindra Bank shares slid after CEO Ashok Vaswani said he won’t seek reappointment; Netweb Technologies dropped 8% as it flagged a July 1 fundraising board meeting. Crypto & FX: USDT traded at an 8.5% premium in India after an ED crackdown; the rupee gained 20 paise to 94.25 per dollar early on. Macro Risk: The BIS warned AI “exuberance” and debt-fueled capex could raise the odds of a broader credit and equity shock. Market Pulse (Asia): Asian trading stayed choppy as investors weighed AI ROI versus rising costs and watched US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty.

Philippines Markets: The PSE benchmark lost momentum after the US-Iran peace deal, with investors still wary of sticky inflation, rising rates, and El Niño-driven food risks. China-Africa Payments: Standard Bank won approval to clear renminbi payments in Africa via a “Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa” setup with ICBC, aiming to cut costs and speed cross-border settlement. AI Infrastructure Stocks: Gorilla Technology’s up-to-$2.5B AI compute contract boosts the AI infrastructure narrative as investors weigh execution risk against stronger guidance. Crypto Leverage Watch: Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz blamed June’s crypto drawdown on excessive leverage, a reminder that derivatives can magnify spot weakness. Bitcoin Technicals: Traders are watching for a potential weekly death cross as institutional and corporate demand signals compete with bearish chart pressure. Tokenized Assets in Zimbabwe: Finsec’s planned regulated tokenised-asset market spotlights the need for payment rails, with Kuva positioning itself as an enabler. UAE-US Trade: UAE-US trade topped $40B in 2025 and the UAE’s $1.4T investment pledge underlines continued financial services and AI infrastructure momentum. DTCC Trial: Chainlink tech was selected for DTCC financial infrastructure collateral trials, reinforcing institutional experimentation in crypto settlement plumbing. Bond/ETF Focus: A new bond ETF pitch highlights mortgage-backed securities as an often-overlooked yield-and-quality mix for diversified portfolios.

US-India Trade: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says Trump’s likely India visit is early 2027 as Washington and New Delhi near a long-awaited bilateral trade deal, with added cooperation in energy, defence and tech. Foreign Flows to India: FIIs are returning to Indian equities as the rupee strengthens to about 94.40/$ and selling eases after weeks of volatility elsewhere in Asia. Central Asia IPO Push: Uzbekistan Airways is set for a landmark IPO as Uzbekistan accelerates privatization, aiming to test capital-market openness and lift valuation via operational reforms. Crypto Market Structure: The SEC seeks public comment on a “Travel Rule” risk-management draft for digital asset transfers, aiming to curb money-laundering and tech crime via transaction information requirements. Bitcoin Sentiment: Grayscale research argues there are two paths out of the bitcoin bear market, pointing to regulation and stablecoin/tokenization growth alongside corporate balance-sheet pressures. Nigeria Rates & Bonds: Nigeria’s FGN bond subscriptions hit N9.04tn in the first half of 2026, driven by pensions, banks and insurers. Banking Regulation (Nepal): Nepal bankers urge NRB to let banks earn from leasing non-banking assets and to revisit loan-loss provisioning rules. Enforcement (India): India’s ED provisionally attached Rs 53.28 crore of assets tied to a retired IPS officer in an Assam police recruitment scam probe.

Islamic Finance & Women’s Protection: Bank Muamalat Malaysia launched M-Zahra Takaful MyLadies and a Digital Faraid Calculator, pushing Shariah-compliant estate planning and financial literacy for women. Cyber & Financial Literacy Push: Affin Bank urged stronger financial and cybersecurity awareness in rural Malaysia as scams and cybercrime rise, highlighting grassroots education partnerships. RBI Credit Derivatives Overhaul: India’s central bank expanded credit derivatives with TRS on corporate bonds plus credit index products, aiming to deepen hedging and market-making. Nigeria Market Stress: A June sell-off wiped about N11tn from NGX value amid regulatory uncertainty, high fixed-income yields, and Dangote IPO speculation. Crypto Tokenization Milestone: BNB Chain said tokenized stock and real-world asset volume topped $5bn, underscoring growing 24/7 on-chain access to traditional assets. Morocco Money-Laundering Probe: Morocco’s financial crime unit opened an investigation into suspicious currency flows via FX offices and businessmen, seeking proof of lawful fund origins. Trade & Investment Infrastructure: Ghana opened its first US East Coast Ghana Trade House in Philadelphia to boost non-traditional exports, while Kuwait’s exchange hosted an investor-relations outlook event. US Equity Milieu: Amazon hit $1tn market value again, while US market commentary flagged downside risk as tech-led momentum cools.

Global Markets & FX: Tech-led selloff dragged equities and kept traders focused on the widening US goods trade deficit, while the dollar eased slightly on the day but stayed firm on the week; in Pakistan, the rupee held steady around Rs278.95 per $ at the interbank level. Dubai & Capital Flows: A question from overseas buyers found no “stampede” out of Dubai—foreign investment value rose to Dh148.35bn in Q1, though sentiment is more cautious and some advisers are diversifying to places like Singapore. Sovereign/Deal Finance: Nigeria accessed about $1.5bn of a $5bn UAE derivatives financing facility via a total return swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank, drawing scrutiny over structure and transparency. Multilateral Bonds: The New Development Bank priced its first bond in Macao SAR, a $50m three-year note, expanding funding reach beyond mainland China. Crypto & Trading Tech: Bitcoin slid to a multi-year low near $59k amid ETF outflows, while Google launched a dedicated Android Google Finance app with AI “Key Moments.” Policy & Housing: California lawmakers advanced an $11.25bn housing bond to boost supply and affordability, while Delaware’s May housing data showed steady sales but affordability-driven caution. Markets & Investing Tools: Tradeweb integrated Kalshi data into institutional workflows, and prediction-market regulation remains in focus as Illinois faces legal challenges.

US Macro: The US goods trade deficit widened sharply in May to $105.8bn from $83bn, with imports rising 3.6% while exports fell 5.4%, adding pressure to an already tech-heavy market. Markets: Europe’s Stoxx 600 slid and US futures pointed lower as investors rotated away from AI/tech after Apple’s price hikes and concerns about higher chip costs hitting margins. Crypto & Trading Platforms: StablecoinX began trading on Nasdaq under the $USDE ticker after its merger; Polymarket confirmed a cyberattack via a compromised third-party vendor and says it’s refunding users in full. Corporate Finance: Made in USA Inc. completed a $25m all-stock acquisition to expand its verification and supply-chain platform infrastructure. Banking/Regulation: Bank of Ghana officials praised a sandbox approach but warned regulation must keep up with faster digital finance and rising cybersecurity risk. Local Economy: Nigeria’s naira edged down 0.03% at the official market, while a Nigerian diocese petitioned the EFCC for an investigation into decades of financial management.

AI & Equities Shock: Kioxia shares sank 12% after reports OpenAI may delay its IPO, dragging AI-linked sentiment; Asia Volatility: South Korea’s Kospi plunged 8% and triggered a trading halt amid leveraged-fund stress and forced selling; Rates & Bonds: Japan’s 10-year yield fell as investors rebalanced after a sharp equity rally, while the US bond market wrestles with expectations for Fed moves; FX & Commodities: Oil slipped toward multi-month lows and Asian risk appetite cooled after Apple’s price hikes; Crypto Turmoil: Bitcoin dropped to about $59k, triggering over $1bn in liquidations; Stablecoin Push: Circle and Nomura plan to bring USDC settlement to Japan’s corporate FX market targeting $440bn daily volumes; Trade & Tariffs: India’s Piyush Goyal said the US deal only starts once India gets a clear tariff advantage; UK Trade Impact: UK food and drink exports fell to the lowest in a decade as US tariffs and Brexit friction bite; Energy Diplomacy: India held talks with Iran on oil cooperation and also deepened energy ties with Venezuela; Banking/Finance Deals: Ardonagh launched Axiiem insurtech for specialty insurance distribution, while Airwallex raised $320m to expand AI finance infrastructure.

Banking Credit Stress: Australia’s Judo Bank warned its cost of risk will jump to $116m–$122m for 2025–26 and cut full-year pre-tax profit guidance to $163m–$169m, with 90-days-past-due/impairment forecast at 3% by June 30, spotlighting pressure on SME borrowers. Digital Assets & Markets: Payward (Kraken parent) sued crypto derivatives platform PowerTrade over alleged misuse of about $7.2m in digital assets and trading gains via disputed corrections and cancellations. Crypto Infrastructure: Uniswap and Spark plan a stablecoin “FX layer” to move liquidity between issuers as banks and fintechs enter stablecoin markets. Geopolitics & Trade: UNCTAD said geopolitical tension is weighing more heavily on global trade and finance than trade policy uncertainty, raising risks of cascading disruption. Frozen Assets Dispute: Iran’s parliament speaker rejected US claims that restored frozen assets would be used to buy American agriculture, escalating a politically charged truce debate. Tokenized Finance: Cap was onboarded as a BENJI client, enabling Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund to be used as a supported deposit asset. Corporate/Equity Flows: Wall Street braces for heavy trading as FTSE Russell reconstitutes the Russell 1000, with SpaceX fast-tracked after its IPO. Regulatory/Policy Risk: Curaçao’s central bank flagged healthcare financing sustainability as a major long-term economic risk. Crypto Price Watch: Bitcoin slid toward $58k–$60k as options traders increasingly bet on further downside toward $52k. Energy/Mining Finance: Tharisa secured a ZAR750m asset revolving finance facility from Nedbank for its underground mining transition. Stablecoin Expansion in MENA: Wise signaled a move into the UAE crypto market, hiring for compliance and product oversight. Trade Deal Progress: China and the US agreed to set up a trade council to discuss tariff reductions and related cooperation.

Panda Bonds & FX Diversification: Brazil plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan ($735m) in its first-ever panda bonds in China within 2–3 months, aiming to test sovereign yuan debt demand and deepen private firms’ China presence. Central Banking & Market Rules: India’s RBI finalized new asset-size rules for upper-layer NBFCs, a move that could force Tata Sons toward listing—boosting Tata Chemicals shares on the prospect of value unlock. Digital Assets & Payments: Standard Chartered hosted a digital assets summit in Accra, pitching stablecoins as a way to cut friction in cross-border payments across Africa while calling for stronger regulation. Banking Risk Controls: China’s banks are scaling back individual precious-metals trading linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange as gold volatility rises and regulators push tighter risk management. Equities & Macro Mood: Micron’s strong earnings helped lift Asian tech sentiment, while gold and related gold-financier stocks slid as the dollar firmed and rate-hike expectations returned. Local Market Infrastructure: Ghana’s Makola Market redevelopment is prompting calls for traders to relocate to temporary spaces as demolition plans move ahead. Corporate Finance: InterContinental Hotels Group bought back 20,000 shares via Goldman Sachs, intending to cancel them. Energy Investment: Roofsol Energy secured INR 260 crore to expand solar IPP and C&I rooftop capacity, including projects tied to JK Tyre and Whirlpool.

US Markets: Stocks edged higher in choppy trade as investors weighed falling oil and bond yields ahead of Micron’s earnings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up while tech stayed mixed. Chip & Earnings Watch: Micron’s results after the close are a key sentiment driver for AI-linked demand, after sharp recent moves in memory stocks. Meta & Fintech: Meta plans to launch “Arena,” a prediction market app using virtual play money and AI-generated questions, aiming to compete with Kalshi/Polymarket. Insider Trading Crackdown: Four people were sentenced in a US insider-trading case tied to a $3.2bn pharma merger, with illicit profits topping $600k. India Market Rules: SEBI proposed expanding direct market access to retail investors, subject to risk controls, and sought comments on trading tech changes. Bond Sales: Oregon State Treasury raised $745.4m via two GO bond sales under its Buy Oregon Bonds program. Real Estate Risk: Colliers warned climate risk is increasingly shaping corporate real estate decisions across EMEA. Crypto Compliance: BitMart secured an Australian Financial Services Licence under the country’s 2026 digital assets framework.