AGP Executive Report

Philippines Banking Snapshot: BSP data shows the country’s financial system resources hit a record P38.3T in June, with banks holding 83% of the total—supporting credit growth despite geopolitical risks. Crypto & Regulation: Swissquote cut 2026 guidance as crypto income slid in the first half, while Tether Gold continues to drive tokenized gold growth (XAUT up $237M in a month). Market Pulse: Global bond yields pushed higher with long-end pressure and a softer USD, as investors weigh Fed signals and crude/geo risk. AI in Personal Finance: A Gallup survey finds 1 in 5 Americans who sought advice used AI, but trust is low versus human advisers. US Policy & Trade: Canada faces a tight deadline to strike a US trade deal to avoid new tariffs. Digital Assets Infrastructure: CryptoQuant says equity perpetual futures volumes surged to ~$250B in July, with Binance dominating. Corporate/Investing: Charles Schwab reported July core net new assets up 24% y/y, while SpaceX investors brace for upcoming share unlocks.

Nepal Energy Shift: Nepal’s power story has flipped from shortages to surplus as installed capacity rises to ~2,200MW and PPAs cover ~7,000MW, shifting the focus to selling, transmission and managing seasonal gaps. Nepse Watch: Nepal’s stock market lost ~Rs7bn in value over Aug 10-14, with turnover down 14% to Rs18.4bn and investors staying cautious. Diaspora Capital Route: Nepal plans to let NRNs invest directly in Nepal-based firms via foreign-currency IPOs, with SEBON rules allowing up to 85% of paid-up capital to be raised through public issues. Singapore vs Hong Kong: Singapore banks on AI access to keep investment managers, while Hong Kong pushes tax incentives—raising a talent and capital competition question. India Tax Amnesty: India’s one-time window for small taxpayers to disclose undeclared foreign assets opens Sunday, with 30% tax plus a matching penalty for up to Rs10m. Central Bank Leverage Risk: A WSJ analysis warns emergency market backstops can encourage excessive leverage, potentially lowering yields until a stress event forces deleveraging. Bitcoin Demand Signal: Bitcoin holds near $63k even as the Coinbase premium index stays negative for 90 days, pointing to weaker US buying. Crypto Derivatives Push: Bybit expands TradFi-style perpetuals past 200, adding Unitree and Moonshot AI pre-IPO contracts with leverage capped at 10x. U.S. Market Setup: India’s next-week equity focus includes Fed minutes (Aug 19), US-Iran risk and crude oil moves.

SEC Sanctions Enforcement: The SEC ordered Nigeria’s capital market operators to freeze funds and assets tied to six alleged terrorism financiers and three entities, citing Nigeria’s sanctions framework and the Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act. AI Credit Stress: Investors are debating “shadow” AI backstops—about $70B of residual value support tied to chip and data-center debt—after Nvidia’s $500B-style financing push raised questions about off-balance-sheet risk. Rates vs Crypto: Bitcoin faces a potential slide toward $45,000 as surging long-term Treasury yields tighten financial conditions and bearish chart signals build. Bond Fund Reality Check: A warning on using securitized-credit ETFs as “bond substitutes” spotlights iShares Securitized Credit (SECU) and the maturity/risk mismatch versus traditional short-duration bond funds. Market Infrastructure: Cboe is testing weekend and extended-hours options trading for major single stocks, aiming to expand pre- and post-market access. Digital Trade & Payments: BRICS discussed linking instant payments and central bank digital currencies to cut cross-border costs, while Kenya prepares a Digital Trade Congress to scale e-commerce. Corporate Finance: AMD raised $4.75B in its biggest-ever dollar bond sale, supporting AI supply commitments including up to $5B for Anthropic.

Crypto & Banking Regulation: The SEC ordered Capital Market Operators to freeze assets tied to nine terrorism financiers, while Nigeria’s SEC also admitted blockchain into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme. Stablecoin Banking Push: World Liberty Financial won preliminary OCC approval for a national trust bank to oversee USD1 stablecoin circulation, pending pre-opening conditions. UK Tax & Pensions: India’s CBDT rolled out a foreign assets disclosure window for small taxpayers (from Aug 16, filings by Dec 31, 2026), offering immunity with set payment routes. Market Outlook (Malaysia): Malaysia’s FBM KLCI futures are seen with an upward bias next week on resilient domestic fundamentals, softer US inflation, and watchpoints including oil, US-Iran tensions, and China data. Energy Trading Policy (Nepal): IPPAN’s chairman urged private-sector entry into electricity trading, arguing the private sector can build production and transmission and should be allowed to expand the market. Trade & Growth (China-Africa): China’s zero-tariff policy is already boosting China-Africa trade, with H1 2026 trade cited at $207bn. Corporate/Auto: BYD unveiled the Qin MAX sedan priced 99,900–143,900 yuan, aiming to reset the B-segment price anchor.

Crypto Regulation & Banking: The US OCC conditionally approved a national trust charter for Trump-backed World Liberty Financial, paving the way for expanded stablecoin operations. Digital Assets & Market Structure: Solana is pitching itself as “the Netflix of finance,” citing a surge in tokenized real-world assets and new stock tokenization features. Carbon Markets: China will expand its national carbon market to cover petrochemicals and chemicals, bringing about 80% of emissions under quota management. Regional Trade & Tech: ASEAN is pushing digital trade, an ASEAN semiconductor roadmap, and stronger supply-chain links as it prepares for September economic minister meetings. Banking Oversight: Malaysia’s central bank said its advice to Malaysia’s Tabung Haji is tied to financial stability monitoring, including warnings over asset-liability gaps. Real Estate Finance: Qatar’s July property sales hit QR2.25bn, up 17% as institutional buyers concentrated on higher-value deals. Corporate/Capital Markets: Barrick Mining shares slid after its IPO hurdle cleared, with investors focused on costs and cash conversion despite the $1.95bn top-up. Local Finance & Health: A Waukegan hospital’s property-tax dispute dragged a tax-deed process as the owner faced financial trouble.

Banking & Markets: Al Ansari Financial Services reported Dh635m H1 operating income supported by currency exchange gains, but profit fell 28.7% as costs stayed fixed while it invests in branches and systems. Credit & Capital Markets: Newtap Finance was upgraded to a Crisil A- for its borrowing programs as its managed loan portfolio climbed to ₹4,582 crore. Corporate Finance: Bank of America agreed a JV with Jio Financial Services to buy up to 49.9% of Jio Credit, targeting India’s fast-growing digital lending market. Regulation & Governance: India’s SEBI proposed a ₹5 crore asset threshold for accredited investors, while Kyrgyzstan’s non-banking regulator Gosfinadzor faced scrutiny over low staffing. Policy & Trade: A US Senate bill floated up to 100% tariffs on Russian energy buyers, adding uncertainty to India-US trade talks as India weighs Russian crude impacts. Investing & Tech: Oracle shares jumped on a multiyear quantum partnership with Quantinuum, while KakaoBank executives bought nearly 500m won of their own shares. Energy & Shipping: Xeneta said Middle East war disruption is pushing long-term freight rates higher, with “fire spreading” from short-term markets. Equities Watch: GB Group cut FY27 guidance on weaker Americas identity trading; Zee shares jumped after SAT cleared a fundraising plan.

Semiconductor Outlook: Applied Materials forecast Q4 revenue above Wall Street expectations on continued AI-chip demand, but shares slid as expectations were already high. Pension & Bonds: The Philippines’ SSS reported P1.27T in investments in H1, with a plan to expand into foreign markets within a 7.5% limit. Digital Inclusion in Asia: Mindanao’s fintech push at MinBizCon highlighted mobile banking and digital payments as a way to unlock capital for MSMEs and the largely unbanked informal ag sector. Working-Capital Finance: A supply-chain financing focus is gaining traction as firms look beyond inventory and staffing to improve supplier payment terms and free cash. AI Infrastructure Finance: Brookfield says it can manage risks in a proposed US$500B Nvidia-linked AI compute financing partnership. Crypto Market Plumbing: Flare integrated FXRP collateral into Derive so XRP holders can trade options and perpetuals onchain. Rates Watch: Bond traders shifted expectations after cheaper oil reduced inflation fears, sending Treasury yields lower. Regulation & Integrity: Baltimore sued prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged illegal sports-betting activity. Banking Tech: MUFG is testing real-time blockchain settlement for Japanese government bond trades to speed and streamline repo operations.

MSME Fintech Push in the Philippines: At Mindanao’s MinBizCon, GCash and Fuse Financing highlighted faster digital lending to help small businesses access working capital and insurance as traditional bank lending remains limited. Regional Trade & Minerals Agenda: South Africa took the SADC chair, aiming to lift intra-regional trade to 50% and push beneficiation of critical minerals rather than exporting raw materials. India Legal Watch: Rahul Gandhi moved the Supreme Court against an Allahabad High Court order tied to CBI/ED checks in a disproportionate assets case, with a hearing expected Aug 17. Banking Deal in Focus: Jio Financial Services shares jumped after Bank of America agreed to buy a 49.9% stake in Jio Credit for Rs 18,268 crore, framing it as a financial investment. Market Integrity Alarm (Turkey): Turkish fund managers urged tougher action over alleged manipulation at Borsa Istanbul, warning about potential benchmark exclusion. Gold & Rates: Gold slipped from a two-month high as traders awaited US PPI for clearer Fed-rate timing. UK Real-Estate Investment: Epsicap Explore completed its fourth acquisition, taking its SCPI portfolio fully outside France with a €7.76m Harrow retail asset. West Africa Fuel Market: Regulators advanced plans for an integrated refined-fuel market to support transparent regional price benchmarks.

AI in Finance: Model ML, backed by HSBC Asset Management, is scaling its agentic AI platform for banks and asset managers, aiming to automate research, due diligence and client-ready documents while keeping governance and accuracy tight. Digital Assets & Custody-Adjacent Reporting: Northern Trust is partnering with Lukka to deliver institutional-grade digital asset reporting, including transaction history and point-in-time balances for compliance and risk workflows. Markets Infrastructure: Kalshi teamed with Nasdaq Market Surveillance to add oversight to prediction markets, and also opened live order-book data via DoubleZero Edge for sports contracts and crypto perpetuals. Policy & Rates: Mild US inflation helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while traders kept focus on what CPI means for the next Fed move. Regional Finance & Trade: India and SACU signed terms of reference to negotiate a preferential trade pact within a year, with duty concessions expected in autos, pharma and machinery. Public Finance Oversight: Namibia’s Rundu Town Council faced scrutiny after Auditor-General findings flagged N$105m in income reversals and years of delayed reporting. Energy Prices: Malaysia cut non-subsidised fuel prices for Aug 13–19, including RON97 down 20 sen and diesel down 10 sen.

Equities Surge on Chips: South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.5% and briefly triggered a trading halt as chip exports surged, lifting regional sentiment and pulling Tokyo higher on semiconductor strength. Oil & Rates Watch: Oil rose as Hormuz risk lingered, while gold climbed on hopes for a deal and traders waited for US CPI for Fed-rate clues. Crypto Positioning: Bitcoin and ether traders leaned into volatility ahead of the US CPI print, while regulators and exchanges faced scrutiny—from SEC/CFTC action over alleged crypto fraud to reports that many Korean coin exchanges show little/no bitcoin trading. Banking & Credit: Speirs Finance named a new chief risk officer to bolster credit governance; Manappuram Finance posted a 341% jump in Q1 profit on gold loans; L&T Finance launched a Jasprit Bumrah gold-loan campaign. Policy & Trade: Canada’s aid-to-trade linkage drew pushback; West African regulators pushed plans for a regional refined-fuel pricing hub; Malaysia’s wholesale/retail trade grew 10.1% y/y in June. Corporate Moves: Godrej Consumer shares slid after CEO Sudhir Sitapati’s sudden exit; Byke Hospitality signed deals for new hotels while discontinuing some properties.

Malaysia Finance Watch: Malaysia’s TH crisis could have been avoided, a minister said, pointing to Bank Negara Malaysia warning letters from 2014-2016 that were allegedly not acted on, with a later RM10bn asset-liability gap and a government bailout. Market Infrastructure: CME is launching index-based NHL hockey futures on Sept. 28 and, separately, plans compute futures on Oct. 5—both aimed at hedging new “investable” risk. AI Capital Markets: Nvidia and Wall Street backers are lining up a $500bn AI infrastructure financing push, while Fed research flags a return to stock-bond correlation and warns supply-driven shocks may complicate policy. Crypto & Tokenization: Coinbase got Abu Dhabi permission to build a tokenized-securities hub, and Bitget launched a $300m fund for Mena quant firms. Corporate Finance: Artisan Partners reported $183bn in July AUM; CNB Financial declared a $0.19 dividend; and several biotechs posted Q2 updates and offerings, including FocalTherics’ proposed ADS public offering.

AI Infrastructure Finance: Nvidia is teaming with Wall Street giants (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, KKR) on a compute-finance platform aimed at mobilizing $500bn+ for AI data centers, reinforcing the shift of AI capex into structured finance. Digital Assets & Reporting: Northern Trust partnered with Lukka to expand institutional digital-asset reporting with transaction history and point-in-time balances. Tokenized Real-World Assets: A new blockchain rail is emerging for U.S. home-price exposure via a digital asset index product, while maritime tokenization plans target regulated institutional routes. Crypto Markets: Bitcoin steadied above $65k as traders watch $70k next; XRP and ether led losses amid risk-off and rate/inflation focus. India Capital Markets: Paytm shares surged after Bernstein lifted its target to ₹2,200; separately, SEBI confirmed a corporate bond tokenization pilot is moving. Renewables Financing: India’s renewable buildout faces a ~$35bn annual financing gap, with InvITs flagged as a capital-recycling lever. Banking/FX Policy: Ukraine expanded currency liberalization limits, while Malaysia’s Tabung Haji faced scrutiny over asset-liability gaps and a RM10bn+ bailout. Corporate Deals: Brookfield India REIT and NCW Prime Offices Fund agreed to buy a Mumbai BKC office asset for $178m.

Markets & Rates: Stocks pulled back as oil and interest-rate worries returned ahead of key inflation data, with traders watching Strait of Hormuz risk and the Fed’s next move. AI Finance: Nvidia shares slid after reports of a potential $500B AI infrastructure financing push with major Wall Street asset managers, raising concentration-risk questions. Crypto Flows: Bitcoin steadied above $65,000 as Iran-Oman deal talk eased Hormuz fears; Strategy sold 1,690 BTC and raised cash via MSTR share sales. Banking Deals: Heartland Bank agreed to buy Tri-County Financial Group in a ~$204.6M transaction, while Illinois banks continue consolidation. Regulation Watch: Brazil set an October 30 licensing deadline for crypto firms or risk losing access to the banking system; Taiwan eased trading rules to boost liquidity. Data Centers & Credit: Banks are scrutinizing community opposition as they finance the AI data-center boom. Corporate Finance: Goldman launched two actively managed bond ETFs, and inKind closed a $414M financing tranche led by Citi and Cross River. Emerging Markets Trade: Nigeria-Ghana onion exports halted; Tanzania and Serbia moved to deepen trade ties.

UPI Fees Clarification: India’s Finance Ministry says any future UPI MDR would hit only select merchants (not consumers) at a nominal rate, while P2P UPI stays free. Regulatory Crackdown: RBI slapped ₹12 lakh penalties on three NBFCs for KYC, governance and suspicious-transaction reporting lapses. Corporate/Markets: Plus500 reported higher half-year core profit as US trading activity and predictions markets gained traction, while CAR Group shares jumped nearly 10% after a profit and dividend lift. M&A/Takeovers: FleetPartners rejected SG Fleet’s bid and is weighing a higher offer from Element, pushing shares to an 8.5-year high. Banking Capital Returns: Eurobank repurchased about 1.1m own shares for ~€4.9m. Energy/FX Watch: Oil rose on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty as the dollar steadied ahead of US inflation data; the yen remained weak after fresh US support. Crypto/Tech: NYSE advanced onchain settlement for tokenized securities; Pluang is rolling out an AI-led trading service for retail with human approval. Enforcement in India: ED filed PMLA prosecution complaints alleging ₹40,372 crore fund diversion in R-Infra/RCom-linked cases.

Macro Watch: Global investors head into a data-heavy week with US CPI, PPI and retail sales in focus, after a softer jobs report cooled expectations for further Fed tightening; traders are also watching Middle East risk around the Strait of Hormuz and tech/AI earnings for clues on growth and rates. Crypto & Markets: Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $853.5m in net inflows for the week ended Aug. 7, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, as institutions cautiously re-enter while rates expectations shift. Stablecoin Infrastructure: Circle says its Arc Mainnet is set for Sept. 16 and highlights partnerships including DTCC and BlackRock, aiming to deepen USDC’s role in financial plumbing. Policy & Governance: Nigeria’s SERAP renewed its push for 2027 presidential candidates to publish assets and reject vote-buying, while the SEC urged Nigeria’s FCT to use capital markets (bonds, REITs, tokenised municipal securities) to fund infrastructure beyond annual budgets. Regional Trade: The UK opened consultations on strengthening trade with the Philippines ahead of potential CPTPP accession; China’s Hunan province targets $11.9b trade with Africa by 2028, led by mining and modern agriculture. Corporate/Banking Signals: Egypt’s EGX rallied, with EGX30 up 0.82% and market cap rising about EGP 55b, while Geregu Power faced fresh investor alarm after missing bond payments.

Digital Finance & Shariah: Malaysia is positioning itself to lead Shariah-compliant digital finance, leaning on blockchain-based “halal” crypto products and more institutional participation rather than retail-only demand. China–EU Trade Friction: China’s new industrial and anti-sanctions legal framework is designed to make retaliatory trade measures more credible, as EU defenses and tariff/battery/solar moves intensify. Air Cargo Pressure: EU import rule changes plus Middle East conflict are weighing on global air freight, with July spot rates down but still elevated versus last year. Crypto Policy & Market Structure: Grayscale research says the US CLARITY Act is unlikely this year, but crypto can still function via regulator rulemaking; meanwhile a BIP-110 Bitcoin fork has stalled after miners produced only two blocks. UK Markets & Investing: Lloyds’ path back toward £2 is framed as a longer-term story, while investors eye FTSE dividend and “value” opportunities amid volatility. India Macro Watch: Indian equities look set for another volatile week as investors track earnings, July retail inflation, crude oil, and US–Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments. Nigeria Market Infrastructure: Lagos is pushing flood-control and road upgrades around Alaba International Market to keep commerce moving and reduce disruption.